Is the threat of malignant melanoma in the UK still increasing? A comprehensive analysis of 30 years of historical data and Bayesian age-period-cohort model projections for 2030.

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Malignant melanoma, a highly aggressive skin cancer, though less common, significantly contributes to cancer-related mortality. In the UK, it is of growing concern with an aging population, making it crucial to analyze historical trends and forecast future burdens. We used Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models to analyze trends in incidence, prevalence, and mortality of malignant melanoma in the UK from 1990 to 2021. Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to predict the disease burden for different age groups by 2030. From 1991 to 2021, melanoma incidence and prevalence in the UK exhibited distinct temporal patterns: a significant upward trend until 2015, particularly pronounced in individuals aged 60 and older, followed by a downward trend after 2015. By 2030, incidence and prevalence are projected to decrease, particularly in younger and middle-aged populations, with incidence expected to fall from 20.78/100 000 in 2020 to 11.90/100 000, and prevalence from 167.80/100 000 to 80.13/100 000. Mortality is also expected to decrease. However, high-risk groups, especially those aged 85 and above, are predicted to maintain higher incidence and prevalence rates. Despite a historical rise, melanoma incidence, prevalence, and mortality have declined since 2015 and are projected to continue declining through 2030. However, the elderly population remains at higher risk, underscoring the need for targeted public health interventions.