Abstract

This paper identifies and discusses the regional heterogeneity of the Brazilian great economic recession of 2014-16 Specifically, we outline a state-level chronology of the recession by applying the Bry-Boschan algorithm, using the states' monthly index of economic activity as reference variables The results indicate that the recession lasted 32 months, and the economic activity fell (peak to trough) 11 8% for the average Brazilian state However, we find a significant heterogeneity regarding timing, duration, and magnitude of the recession -- on average, more industrialized states (with greater participation of the agricultural sector) entered before (after) and stayed more (less) in a state of recession We also find the dispersion, severity, and diffusion of the 2014-16 recession across states was far more significant than in the 2008-09 economic recession Finally, preliminary data suggests that the significant and widespread drop in regional economic activity following the COVID-19 shock is 12 7% and 77 1% larger than those observed in the 2014-16 and the 2008-09 recessions, respectively Our results have critical implications for policymakers

Talk to us

Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have

Schedule a call

Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.